Tag Archives: Dan Gardner
Newest Forecasting Questions from Superforecasting Open Judgment Group
Many of you attended or have listened to the synopsis I gave on Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner (Crown Books, 2016) at the First Friday Book Synopsis.
Here is a follow-up with some of the questions that participants are forecasting from the Good Judgment Open Group:
Newly Published Questions
- As of 1 June 2017, will a European Bank own a branch office or subsidiary bank located in Iran?
- Before 18 October 2016, will Iran’s Guardian Council approve legislation which would restrict the use of the death penalty?
- Will a Spanish prime minister win a vote of confidence before 1 October 2016?
Most Forecasted Questions
Recent Forecasting Questions as Follow-up to Superforecasting
Those of you who attended or have listened to the synopsis I gave on Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip Tetlcok and Dan Gardner (Crown Books, 2016) at the First Friday Book Synopsis are aware that you can participate in the Good Judgment project by clicking HERE.
Here is a follow-up with some of the questions that participants are forecasting:
Newly Published Questions
- Will Iran officially lift its ban on either Facebook or Twitter before 1 October 2016?
Will Dilma Rousseff cease to be President of Brazil before 1 January 2017?
Will the EU lift visa requirements for Turkish citizens before July 2016?
Most Forecasted Questions
- 204 new forecasts:
Will Dilma Rousseff cease to be President of Brazil before 1 January 2017?182 new forecasts:
Which team will win the 2015-2016 NBA Finals?174 new forecasts:
Will the EU lift visa requirements for Turkish citizens before July 2016?136 new forecasts:
Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?127 new forecasts:
Will a majority of voters in Britain’s upcoming referendum elect to remain in the European Union?
