First Friday Book Synopsis

Many of you attended or have listened to the synopsis I gave on Superforecasting:  The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner (Crown Books, 2016) at the First Friday Book Synopsis.

Here is a follow-up with some of the questions that participants are forecasting from the Good Judgment Open Group:

Newly Published Questions

• As of 1 June 2017, will a European Bank own a branch office or subsidiary bank located in Iran?
• Before 18 October 2016, will Iran’s Guardian Council approve legislation which would restrict the use of the death penalty?
• Will a Spanish prime minister win a vote of confidence before 1 October 2016?

   

Most Forecasted Questions

• Will a majority of voters in Britain’s upcoming referendum elect to remain in the European Union?
• Will Keiko Fujimori win Peru’s upcoming presidential election?
• Which team will win the 2015-2016 NBA Finals?